AMP’s chief economist Shane Oliver highlighted increases in resource export volumes, housing construction and consumer spending in the March quarter as significant indicators of the economy’s successful rebalancing.
However, Mr Oliver warned the rebalancing away from mining investment won’t be as smooth as the latest GDP data suggests.
“Growth is likely to slow back below trend in the short term as the hit to confidence from the May Budget flows through to consumer spending and the pace of growth in resource exports settles down,” he said.
“Softer April building approvals, albeit due to volatile multi-unit approvals, along with a fall in house prices in May, which likely signals slowing momentum in house prices and recent weakness in the iron ore price, also add a bit of short-term uncertainty.”
Given the diverse array of indicators currently being seen, the most likely outcome is an extended period of interest rates being left on hold, Mr Oliver said.
“Clear evidence the economy has been rebalancing has seen the number of economists looking for another rate cut dwindle to now just three, whereas the threats to growth from the Budget and the lower iron ore price means those looking for rate hikes are pushing them into 2015,” he said.
Are you thinking of expanding your offering into SMSFs to grow your client base? Become a pro at SMSF fundamentals and make your clients bulletproof with the SMSF Foundations course. Learn directly from Aaron Dunn from Smarter SMSF as he deep-dives into the fundamentals you need to know to successfully undertake your work as an SMSF practitioner. Earn up to 21 CPD hours! Learn more